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Abstract


ESTİMATED GOLD PRICE (TL / KG) WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Estimates of variablessuch as theprices of financialassets, thevalues of variousindicesareveryimportant in thefield of financeandvariousmodelshavebeendeveloped in thisissuefor a long time.Linearandnonlinearregressionanalysis, traditional time seriesanalysisandvolatility, as well as modelssuch as artificialneuralnetworkshaverecentlybeenwidelyusedforpredictingseries. It has beenfoundthatartificialneuralnetworksgivemoresuccessfulresultsthantraditional time seriestechniques. Inthisstudy, in ordertopredicttheclosingprices of goldwithartificialneuralnetworks, modelswereestablishedusingsilverprices, brentoilprices, US dollar / EUR parity, EuroNext100 index, US Dow Jones Index, whicharevariablesthatarethoughttoaffectgoldprices.Estimationresultsobtainedbymodelingwithartificialneuralnetworkswerecomparedwithactualvaluesandperformancecriteriaswerecalculated. It has beendeterminedthat in thelight of theresults, artificialneuralnetworksachieved 81.43% success rate of goldprices.Whentheresults of thevalidityanalysisareevaluated, it is determinedthatsilverprices, EUR / USD parityandbrentoilpricesaretheleadingfactorsaffectinggoldprices.



Keywords
ArtificialNeural Network, PerformanceCriterias, Gold PricesPrediction



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